The Pattern Effect: Coupling of SST Patterns, Radiative Feedbacks, and Climate Sensitivity Workshop
See the workshop webpage for more information.
Dates and location
May 10, 2022 - May 13, 2022
Boulder, CO and Virtual
Background
An emergent subject in climate dynamics, the “pattern effect” describes the dependence of radiative feedbacks and climate sensitivity on time-evolving sea surface temperature (SST) patterns The pattern effect is pronounced in General Circulation Models (GCMs), in which estimates of Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity (ECS) drawn from simulations forced with observed SST patterns can be up to a factor of two lower than the ECS of simulations of long-term warming. The magnitude and physics of the pattern effect however, have not yet been constrained from observations, and GCMs show a large spread. This uncertainty in the magnitude of the pattern effect is so substantial that a recent comprehensive assessment concluded that the observational record of Earth’s energy budget is unable to constrain the upper bound on ECS. Thus, uncertainty in the pattern effect presents one of the largest roadblocks to improved projections of future warming, both in the next decades and centuries.
Organizing committee
Maria Rugenstein, Colorado State University (co-chair)
Cristian Proistosescu, University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign (co-chair)
Kyle Armour, University of Washington
Natalie Burls, George Mason University
Piers Forster, University of Leeds, UK
Jonathan Gregory, University of Reading and Met Office, UK
Sarah Kang, Ulsan National Institute, South Korea
Norman Loeb, NASA Langley Research Center
Bjorn Stevens, Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Germany
Laure Zanna, New York University
